October 22, 2017

‘Only the Brave’ and 2 More Bomb, Tyler Perry’s ‘Boo 2’ Will Break Even: It’s Another Troubling Box-Office Weekend

Geostorm,” “Only the Brave,” “The Snowman” — it’s another in a series of terrible box-office weekends. Last year, the same weekend saw three new releases gross a total of $65 million; this year, four new releases totaled $44 million. “Boo 2: A Madea Halloween” performed best, but at the lower end of expectations.

This is a performance that might be expected in January, the dumping ground for loser films. But October is the month where we’ve seen films like “Gravity,” “Gone Girl,” and “The Martian” thrive.

Is it a crisis yet? It’s clear there’s still an audience when a September release like “It” can hit $320 million domestic so far. However, it’s clear that even franchise fans are unreliable.

With a $22 million opening weekend and a $25 million budget, “Boo 2!” could break even: Figure less than $30 million in marketing/distribution costs, maybe $60 million gross and about half back to Lionsgate. It has home-viewing value with the brand, but in adjusted terms it ranks among the lowest of Perry’s films, and about a third below last year’s “Boo!”

Still, this the weekend’s top film and it ranks below the two top openers a year ago, with much less competition. The fans are there —  the Cinemascore is fine despite bad reviews, suggesting core fans are satisfied. It’s just that fewer go to theaters.

Gerard Butler in Geostorm



Lionsgate is lucky compared to their competitors. “Geostorm” is a big-budget ($120 million is the reported number, some estimates suggest much higher), wannabe blockbuster. It opened overseas last week and only grossed $49 million. So what is likely close to a $250 million investment is headed for a wipeout loss.

“Only the Brave” and “The Snowman” both cost under $40 million, so their losses will be less. The first, a true-life hero story, got good reviews and provided a cast of well-regarded actors like Miles Teller and James Brolin. Its fate? DOA at $6 million; it will struggle to make more than $20 million.

“The Snowman” was a clear example of good intentions (rising “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” director Tomas Alfredson, waning-appeal actor Michael Fassbender, best-selling thriller novel), but they went very wrong. Like “Boo 2!” and “Geostorm,” it received appalling reviews. It might have some foreign appeal ($19 million so far), but it’s hard to see how it makes money.

Miles Teller Josh Brolin Only the Brave

“Only the Brave”

Sony Pictures

Prior-week holdovers also struggled. “Happy Death Day” dropped 64 percent its second weekend. Well-received Jackie Chan film “The Foreigner,” down 58 percent. “Blade Runner 2049” is past  hopes of catching on; in its third weekend, where well-received films often get a second wind with late-arriving interest, it dropped another 53 percent.

One possible factor: With the Harvey Weinstein scandal, and the additional allegations it’s inspired, the movie business has never looked uglier. Who knows if this deters audiences from seeing movies, but it certainly doesn’t help — and this comes weeks after “It” suggested an unexpected outpouring of interest.

NO MUSIC – In Disney•Pixar’s “Coco,” which opens in U.S. theaters on Nov. 22, 2017, aspiring musician Miguel challenges his family’s generations-old ban on music, spending time with a local mariachi. But his grandmother Abuelita promptly puts a stop to it. “Coco” features Lombardo Boyar as the voice of the mariachi, Renée Victor as the voice of Abuelita and Anthony Gonzelez as the voice of Miguel. ©2017 Disney•Pixar. All Rights Reserved.



The upcoming performances of “Thor: Ragnarok,” “Coco,” “Justice League,” and perhaps “Daddy’s Home 2” might suggest a short-term stumble. But the recent results are suggesting deep issues that could get worse.


The Top Ten

1. Boo 2: A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) NEW – Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 17; Est. budget: $22 million

$21,650,000 in 2,388 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $9,066; Cumulative: $21,650,000

2. Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW – Cinemascore: B-; Metacritic: 21; Est. budget: $120 million

$13,300,000 in 3,246 theaters; PTA: $4,097; Cumulative: $13,300,000

3. Happy Death Day (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #1

$9,375,000 (-64%) in 3,298 theaters (+149); PTA: $2,843; Cumulative: $40,683,000

4. Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.) Week 3; Last weekend #2

$7,155,000 (-54%) in 3,205 theaters (-805); PTA: $2,234; Cumulative: $74,005,000

5. Only the Brave (Sony) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 73; Est. budget: $38 million

$6,010,000 in 2,577 theaters; PTA: $2,332; Cumulative: $6,010,000

6. The Foreigner (STX) Week 2; Last weekend #3

$5,450,000 (-58%) in 2,515 theaters (no change); PTA: $2,167; Cumulative: $22,844,000

7. It (Warner Bros.) Week 7; Last weekend #4

$3,500,000 (-42%) in 2,560 theaters (-616); PTA: $1,367; Cumulative: $320,234,000

8. The Snowman (Universal) NEW – Cinemascore: D; Metacritic: 24; Est. budget: $35 million

$3,442,000 in 1,812 theaters; PTA: $1,900; Cumulative: $3,442,000

9. American Made (Universal) Week; 4 Last weekend #6

$3,162,000 (-42%) in 2,559 theaters (-539); PTA: $1,236; Cumulative: $45,504,000

10. Kingsman: The Golden Circle (20th Century Fox) Week 5; Last weekend #7

$3,000,000 (-44%) in 2,318 theaters (-664); PTA: $1,294; Cumulative: $94,569,000

Source: IndieWire film